Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c98…fc7e other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,779 (-85%) realized −$9,778 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$607per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$9,645
other 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$46
politics 0% −$11
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +22.9% +11.2% 75% 50% +35.5%
≤90d 11 -17.9% -25.7% 64% 18% -98.6%
all 18 -21.3% -28.8% 67% 11% -98.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 11% -98.5%
10% -35.6% 11% -98.6%
15% -41.8% 11% -98.7%
20% -47.5% 11% -98.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1,613 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$9,778
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage140d
Avg bet$607
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 29 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 Apr 17 $5,000 −$4,922 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 Apr 14 $3,597 −$3,544 -98%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 Apr 13 $2,642 −$1,179 -45%
Will Keya Kellum get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? Apr 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 11 $4 $0 +9%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Mar 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address? Feb 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? Feb 23 $2 $0 +1%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January? Feb 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? Feb 23 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 20d
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5,000 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,597 65d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 SELL Under 46¢ $189 67d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 SELL Under 46¢ $464 67d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 SELL Under 46¢ $303 67d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 SELL Under 46¢ $464 67d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 47¢ $328 67d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,157 67d
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,157 67d
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between BUY No 100¢ $3 107d
Will Keya Kellum get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio? BUY No 100¢ $2 107d
No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 107d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 92¢ $1 107d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 92¢ $4 116d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 116d
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 116d
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State BUY Yes 95¢ $5 116d
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 140d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 140d
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January? BUY No 96¢ $2 140d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? BUY No 97¢ $3 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.57 · official $158.60 (match) · 38 history records