Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c96…e71f crypto 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,320 (-6%) realized −$3,459 · open +$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%264W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$5,766
other 1% +$7
sports 0% +$187
world 0% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -70.5% -73.3% 11% 11% -80.9%
≤30d 288 -54.2% -58.5% 15% 15% -69.3%
≤90d 768 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 31% -25.7%
all 807 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 31% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 31% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 29% -32.8%
15% -45.7% 26% -39.3%
20% -51.1% 21% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$50 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized−$3,459
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses264 / 543
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)807 / 662
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 25¢ $22 $123 +$101 (+460%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$124 -95%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 1AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$38 +298%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 5AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 11PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 4AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$32 +354%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 2AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$58 +196%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +66%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$31 -91%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 3AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$27 -54%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$21 -73%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$41 -72%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Austria win on 2026-0 BUY 33¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.41 · official $391.66 · 3500 history records