Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c95…8a0b sports 626 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31,551 (-5%) realized −$31,551 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%476W / 150L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$3,215est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,895
7 days−$8,958
14 days−$15,512
30 days−$21,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$16,275
other 13% −$17,357
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -9.2% -17.8% 75% 32% -17.8%
≤30d 207 -10.3% -18.9% 71% 44% -16.6%
≤90d 439 -5.6% -14.5% 73% 46% -14.2%
all 626 -4.7% -13.8% 76% 43% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 43% -14.3%
10% -22.1% 25% -22.5%
15% ← realistic here -29.6% 16% -30.0%
20% -36.5% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,273) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$886 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31,551
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses476 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3,215
Open positions0
Markets (closed)626 / 626
History coverage117d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 626 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $1,283 +$13 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $1,209 +$74 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,064 +$141 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $1,034 +$30 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 17 $1,205 −$1,205 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $835 −$835 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $1,558 −$523 -34%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $1,270 +$38 +3%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $2,725 +$141 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,631 +$570 +35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,517 +$126 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,440 +$64 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $918 +$522 +57%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $872 +$46 +5%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1,359 +$208 +15%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $1,442 −$1,442 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,097 +$105 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1,068 +$32 +3%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $1,376 +$71 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $1,364 +$18 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $954 +$397 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$85 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,457 +$511 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,510 −$4,510 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,188 +$306 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,848 +$330 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,635 +$222 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3,532 −$2,089 -59%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,391 +$244 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $3,189 +$1,179 +37%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,167 −$3,167 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,309 +$776 +59%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,099 +$203 +18%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $503 −$503 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $630 −$630 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,986 +$182 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $3,701 +$277 +8%
Krejcikova vs. Linette: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $808 +$723 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $953 +$103 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,510 +$535 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $923 +$28 +3%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1,413 −$1,139 -81%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,619 −$1,619 -100%
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $1,431 +$1,081 +76%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1,325 +$175 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1,483 +$597 +40%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1,081 +$39 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $1,243 +$225 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1,296 34m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 99¢ $1,193 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 99¢ $90 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $1,283 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 94¢ $1,191 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 91¢ $18 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1,064 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $1,064 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $1,034 17h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $37 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $2 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $2 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $15 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $10 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $969 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 60¢ $4 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 60¢ $1,554 19h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 84¢ $790 20h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 84¢ $35 20h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 84¢ $10 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi SELL Brazil 100¢ $1,309 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $171 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $228 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $10 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $171 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 97¢ $112 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $98 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 96¢ $47 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 96¢ $59 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 96¢ $182 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3354 history records