Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c94…1a64 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+13%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$116
14 days+$162
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$134
crypto 34% −$45
sports 23% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.9% +13.0% 77% 69% +12.9%
≤30d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 56% 44% +3.0%
≤90d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 56% 44% +3.0%
all 27 +1.0% -8.6% 56% 44% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% +3.0%
10% -17.3% 41% -6.9%
15% -25.3% 37% -15.9%
20% -32.6% 19% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage20d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $84 +$46 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 −$16 -69%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$21 +139%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $23 +$16 +69%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$16 +73%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$6 +10%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$18 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 +$46 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $18 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $17 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $130 23h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 23h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $77 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 26h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $62 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $39 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $92 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records