Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8c94…2e06 world 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$285 (+6%) realized +$293 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%106W / 103L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$106
14 days+$162
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$279
sports 6% +$29
other 5% −$8
politics 3% +$9
finance 2% −$8
weather 1% −$23
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% −$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +5.1% -4.9% 65% 37% -6.3%
≤30d 116 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 31% -6.1%
≤90d 209 +4.5% -5.4% 51% 34% -4.1%
all 209 +4.5% -5.4% 51% 34% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 34% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 21% -13.3%
15% -22.7% 14% -21.6%
20% -30.3% 10% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$293
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses106 / 103
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)209 / 224
History coverage51d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 58¢ 71¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+22%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 14¢ 3¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-82%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $82 +$10 +12%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $130 +$14 +11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $39 +$14 +36%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $62 +$14 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 16 $106 −$2 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $88 −$21 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $157 +$20 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $91 +$2 +3%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +37%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $71 +$9 +13%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $12 −$5 -45%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $49 +$9 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $135 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $208 −$11 -5%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $29 −$5 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $161 +$10 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $35 +$4 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $54 +$8 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $78 +$12 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $103 +$7 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $103 +$5 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $25 −$4 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$4 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $14 +$8 +54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $64 −$16 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +9%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $61 +$4 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $95 +$6 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $35 −$12 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $100 +$21 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $117 +$8 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $80 −$16 -20%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $70 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 8¢ $3 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 6¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $13 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $4 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $4 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $24 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 81¢ $4 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 81¢ $8 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 81¢ $12 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 80¢ $24 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 68¢ $10 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 70¢ $21 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 68¢ $11 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 69¢ $10 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 62¢ $3 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 61¢ $3 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 60¢ $3 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $17 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.40 · official $68.41 (match) · 1388 history records