Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c90…2f6b sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$241
7 days−$76
14 days−$137
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$268
other 13% −$248
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 40% -11.9%
≤30d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 39% -14.9%
≤90d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 37% -18.1%
all 38 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 37% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 37% -18.1%
10% -20.2% 34% -25.9%
15% -27.9% 34% -33.1%
20% -35.0% 29% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$114 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage44d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $234 +$447 +191%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $100 +$134 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $179 −$175 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$105 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $106 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$49 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $250 +$233 +93%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $345 −$340 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $82 +$74 +91%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $51 −$47 -93%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $61 −$19 -31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $297 +$218 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $109 −$106 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $458 −$250 -54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $354 −$50 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $143 +$55 +38%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $239 −$5 -2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $355 +$229 +64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $229 −$150 -65%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $102 +$61 +59%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $193 +$253 +131%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $428 −$220 -52%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Pla Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $165 +$26 +16%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $281 −$14 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $155 +$115 +75%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $163 −$1 -1%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $210 +$185 +88%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $301 −$295 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 28 $44 +$2 +5%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 28 $110 −$66 -60%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $216 −$214 -99%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $217 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $78 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $30 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 37¢ $204 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $100 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 30h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $26 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $51 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $102 33h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $93 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 33¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 85¢ $150 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $101 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $152 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 68¢ $195 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 34¢ $51 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 43¢ $47 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $152 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $345 3d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL Dynamo Esports 3¢ $4 3d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 40¢ $51 3d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL FlyQuest 31¢ $42 3d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 43¢ $61 3d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 28¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.63 · official $77.63 (match) · 119 history records