Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c8e…c29e sports 434 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,590 (-2%) realized −$1,580 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%200W / 233L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$984est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$362
14 days−$5,609
30 days−$3,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$3,639
other 29% +$1,412
world 2% −$25
crypto 1% −$71
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 57% -71.8%
≤30d 103 -10.3% -18.8% 47% 40% -22.2%
≤90d 291 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 38% -12.5%
all 433 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -12.2%
10% -22.5% 33% -20.6%
15% -30.0% 28% -28.3%
20% -36.9% 25% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$87 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,580
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses200 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$984
Open positions1
Markets (closed)433 / 434
History coverage207d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 32¢ 11¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $44 +$14 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$17 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $395 −$392 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $169 +$37 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $508 −$479 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $498 +$259 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $806 −$83 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$379 +188%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $919 −$897 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,925 −$500 -26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,426 −$1,129 -79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $504 +$209 +41%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $405 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $303 +$132 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $202 +$131 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 +$155 +76%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $506 +$319 +63%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $307 −$200 -65%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $108 −$106 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $102 +$283 +277%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $305 +$329 +108%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $205 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $304 +$203 +67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $508 +$730 +144%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $204 +$336 +165%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $264 −$260 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $105 −$104 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $43 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 47¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 75¢ $35 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 63¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $16 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $37 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 75¢ $395 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 39¢ $102 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 53¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $202 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $205 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $169 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 9¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $508 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $758 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $498 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $492 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.16 · official $5.16 (match) · 2016 history records