Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c8e…5610 crypto 904 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$761 (-10%) realized −$750 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%270W / 631L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$197
14 days−$503
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$121
sports 24% −$255
crypto 19% −$182
politics 18% −$238
world 3% −$227
weather 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -25.0% -32.2% 31% 27% -17.7%
≤30d 217 -6.2% -15.1% 28% 24% -14.9%
≤90d 901 -17.5% -25.3% 30% 25% -22.8%
all 901 -17.5% -25.3% 30% 25% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 25% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 21% -30.2%
15% -39.0% 18% -37.0%
20% -45.0% 16% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$750
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses270 / 631
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)901 / 904
History coverage64d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $48 $43 −$5 (-11%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$20 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $64 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$30 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$29 -63%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$3 +262%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$4 +64%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 +$10 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $104 −$36 -34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 −$16 -63%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$17 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $83 −$2 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $1,224 −$159 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $23 −$1 -4%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 53m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $48 54m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $47 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 34¢ $48 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $54 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $54 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $64 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 1¢ $0 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 8¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 9¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 15¢ $1 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $67 21h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 32h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 32h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $46 34h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $45 36h
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner SELL The Last Resort 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner SELL The Last Resort 99¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner BUY The Last Resort 90¢ $47 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.69 · official $44.69 (match) · 2747 history records