Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c8c…c7b4 sports 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59,686 (+6%) realized +$59,692 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%253W / 217L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$2,092per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$7,543est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$1,710
14 days−$3,913
30 days+$12,902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$52,297
other 1% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 53% +14.2%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 46% +19.2%
≤90d 220 +0.1% -9.4% 51% 49% -3.9%
all 470 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 51% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 51% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 46% -13.8%
15% -25.0% 41% -22.2%
20% -32.4% 37% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,535 vs −$1,548 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$59,692
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses253 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$7,543
Open positions1
Markets (closed)470 / 471
History coverage157d
Avg bet$2,092
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Las Vegas Aces 48¢ 46¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $46 +$73 +158%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $621 −$613 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $500 +$537 +107%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $509 +$682 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,113 +$662 +60%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $669 −$669 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $357 −$311 -87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $153 −$150 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $699 +$90 +13%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $491 +$475 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $968 +$1,194 +123%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $1,757 −$1,757 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $2,430 −$2,430 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $384 +$248 +65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $102 +$210 +206%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,439 −$3,439 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7,020 +$9,441 +134%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4,990 −$4,990 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1,020 +$2,107 +206%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10,546 +$14,295 +136%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $3,016 −$3,016 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 27 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1,570 +$1,298 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $4,052 +$2,968 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 24 $483 −$483 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 24 $852 −$852 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $6,077 −$6,077 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $5,156 −$4,989 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $1,622 −$1,622 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $2,956 +$1,289 +44%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $4,654 +$3,973 +85%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3,532 +$7,148 +202%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $2,639 −$2,639 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) May 18 $915 −$915 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5,061 −$4,935 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 17 $2,385 −$2,385 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $2,020 +$1,010 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1,314 +$2,079 +158%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $4,641 −$4,641 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 38¢ $46 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $203 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 38¢ $115 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 62¢ $506 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 47¢ $500 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,113 3d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty $46 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $153 3d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 48¢ $88 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $789 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 68¢ $101 3d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 77¢ $269 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $966 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $491 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $699 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $567 4d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 44¢ $102 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 13¢ $103 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,162 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $968 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 22¢ $51 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $384 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $102 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,284 14d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 32¢ $102 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 41¢ $509 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $910 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.85 · official $193.85 (match) · 1452 history records