Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c86…0b14 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$164 (+4%) realized +$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 32L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% +$225
crypto 36% −$81
world 23% +$13
sports 3% +$1
other 1% +$13
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +77.0% +60.2% 100% 100% +60.2%
≤30d 1 +77.0% +60.2% 100% 100% +60.2%
≤90d 13 -14.9% -23.0% 46% 46% -8.3%
all 69 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 46% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 46% -5.6%
10% -26.1% 33% -14.6%
15% -33.2% 25% -22.9%
20% -39.8% 20% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage109d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $33 +$25 +77%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 24 $241 −$38 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $118 −$17 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 21 $179 +$51 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $78 +$17 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $67 +$13 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 19 $108 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 17 $30 −$10 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $100 +$25 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Mar 31 $200 −$6 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $345 +$128 +37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 25 $316 +$32 +10%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 24 $16 −$12 -75%
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5 Mar 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Mar 23 $114 +$3 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 20 $66 +$31 +46%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? Mar 19 $33 +$32 +96%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20? Mar 18 $108 +$13 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 18? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $361 −$175 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? Mar 17 $100 +$36 +36%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 17 $20 +$18 +88%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 17? Mar 17 $200 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $94 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $21 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 46¢ $58 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 66d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 66d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $49 69d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $48 69d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL Yes 36¢ $80 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $47 70d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $52 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $78 70d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $79 70d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 70d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 31¢ $67 70d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 70d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $34 71d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records