Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
8C 0x8c85…775b sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$3,361 (+39%) realized +$3,365 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%21W / 7L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$76
14 days−$30
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,280
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +34.1% +21.3% 100% 100% +21.3%
≤30d 5 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 80% +1.3%
≤90d 11 +25.7% +13.7% 82% 82% +27.7%
all 28 +24.3% +12.5% 75% 75% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 75% +25.8%
10% +1.7% 71% +13.8%
15% -8.1% 46% +2.8%
20% -17.1% 29% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$192 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$3,365
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses21 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage179d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 27¢ 26¢ $225 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $224 +$76 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $394 −$390 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $716 +$284 +40%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $563 +$137 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 31 $430 +$170 +40%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $310 +$90 +29%
Magic vs. Pistons May 09 $831 +$269 +32%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 03 $603 +$215 +36%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $476 +$101 +21%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 23 $645 +$1,460 +226%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 29 $196 −$196 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $560 −$560 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Mar 23 $377 +$273 +72%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 22 $594 +$726 +122%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 18 $371 +$329 +89%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 16 $426 +$174 +41%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 13 $67 +$83 +123%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 09 $77 +$23 +30%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 09 $114 +$36 +32%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 25 $53 +$15 +28%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 25 $57 +$60 +104%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 16 $49 +$22 +45%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 11 $44 +$56 +127%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $74 −$74 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jan 26 $37 +$32 +85%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 27¢ $230 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $224 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $394 8d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 71¢ $716 15d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 80¢ $563 22d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $430 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $310 43d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 75¢ $831 49d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Spurs 66¢ $141 57d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $603 57d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $476 59d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 30¢ $45 62d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 30¢ $600 62d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Magic 44¢ $176 84d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Magic 44¢ $20 84d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Lakers 56¢ $560 91d
Hurricanes vs. Penguins BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $377 91d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $90 95d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $504 95d
Bruins vs. Devils BUY Devils 53¢ $371 97d
Pelicans vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $426 100d
Knicks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 45¢ $67 104d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 77¢ $77 108d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 76¢ $38 112d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 76¢ $76 112d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 42¢ $51 116d
Clippers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 78¢ $53 121d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $57 125d
Spurs vs. Warriors BUY Spurs 69¢ $49 130d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Rockets 44¢ $44 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.01 · official $221.01 (match) · 55 history records