Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c81…dcd3 other 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$181,386 (+16%) realized +$181,386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%158W / 522L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,487per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$3,322est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$130,865
sports 22% −$19,149
crypto 2% −$736
world 1% +$7,870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 386 -76.3% -78.6% 5% 4% -64.7%
≤30d 431 -67.4% -70.5% 8% 7% -47.9%
≤90d 575 -46.2% -51.3% 20% 17% -15.2%
all 680 -35.5% -41.6% 23% 19% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 19% -15.0%
10% -47.2% 18% -23.1%
15% ← realistic here -52.3% 18% -30.6%
20% -57.0% 17% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,643) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,980 vs −$1,049 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$181,386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses158 / 522
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$3,322
Open positions0
Markets (closed)680 / 316
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$3,487
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 680 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Padres vs. Cubs Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Jun 23 $37 −$40 -108%
EuroBasket: Turkey vs. Poland Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Boise State vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 23 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4PM ET Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 23 $1,412 −$1,412 -100%
Suns vs. Nets Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 23 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 23 $544 −$544 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Jun 23 $1,870 −$1,870 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Jun 23 $781 −$781 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 23 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Jun 23 $5,779 −$5,779 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-14? Jun 23 $16 −$26 -161%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-30? Jun 23 $2,069 −$2,069 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-05? Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? Jun 23 $3,730 −$3,730 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Jun 23 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Orioles vs. Yankees Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 23 $30 +$15 +51%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2025-10-09? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-10-02? Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2025-10-14? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Commanders vs. Falcons Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 23 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? Jun 23 $270 −$270 -100%
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Jun 23 $1,544 −$1,544 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Jun 23 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Jun 23 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat Jun 23 $3,900 −$3,900 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08? Jun 23 $2,127 −$2,127 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 23 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? Jun 23 $0 $0 +14%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 23 $461 −$461 -100%
ATP Toronto – Comesana vs. De Minaur Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 88¢ $111 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 75¢ $63 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 74¢ $83 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 51¢ $226 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 95¢ $119 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 94¢ $235 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $96 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $198 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 60¢ $300 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $168 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 59¢ $29,500 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $6 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $126 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $28 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $29,500 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $140 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $59 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $149 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $526 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $31,020 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,114 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records