Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c80…02c3
sports · 20 markets active 15d ago
0.0score
−$2,745,956 -61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,674,093 · open −$71,863
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,085,746
Realized−$2,674,093
Unrealized−$71,863
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$44,920
Open positions7
Markets (closed)51 / 20
History coverage29d
Avg bet$226,246
Trades / day118.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 7 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$674,124
7 days−$674,124
14 days−$674,124
30 days−$1,133,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $367,129 $407,592 +$40,462 (+11%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $350,717 $369,554 +$18,837 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $284,352 $151,556 −$132,796 (-47%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $140,204 $145,502 +$5,297 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $9,169 $7,708 −$1,462 (-16%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,911 $2,778 −$132 (-5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $3,127 $1,056 −$2,071 (-66%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1,071 $0 −$1,071 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 24¢ 0¢ $225,542 $0 −$225,542 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3,658 $0 −$3,658 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 71¢ 0¢ $37,633 $0 −$37,633 (-100%)
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Curtis Blaydes 50¢ 0¢ $73,808 $0 −$73,808 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1,331 $0 −$1,331 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Alexander Bublik 63¢ 0¢ $35,369 $0 −$35,369 (-100%)
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Paul 12¢ 0¢ $20,509 $0 −$20,509 (-100%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Joao Fonseca 41¢ 0¢ $4,071 $0 −$4,071 (-100%)
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Alexander Zverev 9¢ 0¢ $15,496 $0 −$15,496 (-100%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Alexander Zverev 12¢ 0¢ $45,226 $0 −$45,226 (-100%)
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,043 $0 −$3,043 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $9,543 $0 −$9,543 (-100%)
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2,064 $0 −$2,064 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 65¢ 0¢ $97,435 $0 −$97,435 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 12 $1,071 −$1,071 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Jun 12 $3,658 −$3,658 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $73,808 −$73,808 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 12 $1,331 −$1,331 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 12 $35,369 −$35,369 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Jun 12 $20,509 −$20,509 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $4,071 −$4,071 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $15,496 −$15,496 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $45,226 −$45,226 -100%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Jun 12 $3,043 −$3,043 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Jun 12 $9,543 −$9,543 -100%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $2,064 −$2,064 -100%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Jun 12 $3,253 −$3,253 -100%
Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $341 −$341 -100%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $5,972 −$5,972 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet Jun 12 $2,950 −$2,950 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 12 $44,557 −$44,557 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 12 $8,316 −$16,558 -199%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $32,499 −$32,499 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $609 −$609 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Jun 12 $12,004 −$12,004 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 12 $74,294 −$74,294 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $43,131 −$43,131 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $218,598 −$218,598 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $3,215 −$3,215 -100%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 28 $97,657 −$97,435 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $108,517 −$108,346 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $255,215 −$253,243 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1,797,298 −$1,790,348 -100%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 09 $28,708 −$28,035 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $482,152 +$486,297 +101%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 08 $37,646 −$37,633 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $207,463 −$204,064 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $8,926 +$43,049 +482%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 04 $35,439 −$34,836 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $117,471 −$116,074 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $117,135 +$107,743 +92%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $8,252 +$1,456 +18%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $18,233 −$18,233 -100%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $1,312 +$521 +40%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $304,406 +$445,572 +146%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $5,614 −$225,542 -4018%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$1,971,934
other 17% −$118,735
politics 7% +$18,837
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $40,793 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $37 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $26,025 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $7 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $12 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $37 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $86 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $37 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $1,593 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $163 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $9 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $273 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $6 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $7 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $9 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $56 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $218 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $19 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $186 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $186 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $81 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-73.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 36 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 51 -71.0% -73.8% 12% 12% -61.1%
all 51 -71.0% -73.8% 12% 12% -61.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover118.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -73.8% 12% -61.1%
10% -76.3% 10% -64.9%
15% ← realistic here -78.6% 10% -68.3%
20% -80.7% 8% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085,746.19 · official $1,085,746.19 (match) · 3500 history records