Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c7f…68b0 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 12% $0
other 10% $0
crypto 3% +$2
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 36 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage275d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $3 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 19 $8 $0 -6%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on September 15? Sep 16 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $37 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $18 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $16 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 28¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 28¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 28¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records