Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8c7d…8e1f crypto 141 markets active 5d ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%91W / 56L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -7.9%
≤30d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -7.9%
≤90d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -7.9%
all 147 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 45% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses91 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 141
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 1274 history records