Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c7a…be71 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+8%) realized +$70 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$9
other 31% +$55
crypto 12% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 40% -1.6%
≤30d 25 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 40% -1.6%
≤90d 25 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 40% -1.6%
all 25 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 40% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 40% -1.6%
10% -4.5% 40% -11.0%
15% -13.7% 36% -19.6%
20% -22.2% 28% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$15 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 20¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 −$14 -56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$54 +276%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $20 +$43 +213%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 59m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $15 59m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 24h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $10 26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 36h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 36h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 36h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 46h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $13.04 (match) · 42 history records