Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8c77…4d42 sports 36 markets active 3h ago coverage 609d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,779 (+9%) realized +$25,973 · open −$9,194
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$5,257per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3,513est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,049
7 days+$10,445
14 days+$15,712
30 days+$18,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$12,841
politics 24% +$7,102
world 10% −$10,564
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +38.6% +25.4% 56% 31% -0.4%
≤30d 29 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 41% +0.9%
≤90d 29 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 41% +0.9%
all 31 +23.0% +11.3% 61% 42% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.3% 42% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 32% -8.8%
15% -9.1% 23% -17.6%
20% -18.0% 10% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$8,930) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,260 vs −$448 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$7,624
Realized+$25,973
Unrealized−$9,194
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3,513
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage609d
Avg bet$5,257
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 13¢ 20¢ $1,944 $3,089 +$1,145 (+59%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $2,478 $2,703 +$225 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 18¢ $5,228 $1,282 −$3,946 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ $5,818 $403 −$5,415 (-93%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $1,350 $146 −$1,204 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 15 $1,854 −$1,031 -56%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 15 $1,916 +$652 +34%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 15 $11,063 +$1,113 +10%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $12,175 +$960 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $1,568 −$631 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$44 +809%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $1,428 +$618 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13,636 +$9,158 +67%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $2,767 −$491 -18%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $14,019 +$945 +7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $60 −$49 -81%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $24,947 +$1,685 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18,421 −$2,515 -14%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $18,592 +$2,148 +12%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 09 $8,617 +$2,418 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1,087 −$344 -32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $621 +$272 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,345 +$305 +13%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $620 +$132 +21%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $8,930 +$272 +3%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 04 $1,943 +$67 +4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,840 +$1,104 +60%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $5,782 +$1,880 +32%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 19 $6,893 −$143 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $332 +$162 +49%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 Nov 06 $486 −$154 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $102 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $22 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $122 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $289 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $855 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $469 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $171 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,294 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $1 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $873 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $134 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $10 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $264 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $3,082 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1,206 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $385 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $11 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $12 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $10 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $64 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $15 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $12 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $102 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $59 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,623.66 · official $7,587.54 (match) · 1894 history records