Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c74…aa63 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$135 (+11%) realized +$69 · open +$66
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$23
sports 27% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 38% -13.8%
≤30d 14 -24.4% -31.6% 36% 36% -14.9%
≤90d 19 +39.2% +25.9% 42% 42% +8.4%
all 19 +39.2% +25.9% 42% 42% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.9% 42% +8.4%
10% +13.9% 42% -2.0%
15% +2.9% 37% -11.4%
20% -7.2% 16% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$17 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage83d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $347 $415 +$68 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $54 $45 −$9 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $18 +$8 +43%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$31 -40%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $29 −$15 -50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $91 +$27 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$36 -67%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $23 +$90 +387%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $12 +$103 +854%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $45 −$44 -99%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 31 $124 +$56 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 14m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 37m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 1h
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $73 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 36¢ $18 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $14 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $71 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 80¢ $53 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 78¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.16 · official $614.21 (match) · 63 history records