Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c73…6daf sports 1178 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,623 (-2%) realized −$25,623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%807W / 371L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$919per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$7,045est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,098
7 days−$21,264
14 days−$10,945
30 days−$53,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$24,223
crypto 4% −$2,085
other 1% −$809
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -21.9% -29.3% 50% 39% -26.7%
≤30d 461 -12.1% -20.4% 59% 51% -20.6%
≤90d 1178 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 54% -11.8%
all 1178 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 54% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 54% -11.8%
10% -19.9% 34% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 18% -27.9%
20% -34.7% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$465 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25,623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses807 / 371
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$7,045
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1178 / 1178
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$919
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1178 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,250 −$793 -63%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,113 −$883 -42%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $710 −$542 -76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $603 +$102 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$106 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,218 −$1,721 -78%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $904 −$167 -18%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1,103 +$105 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $442 +$251 +57%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $995 +$131 +13%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $804 −$335 -42%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2,748 −$1,416 -52%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1,507 +$246 +16%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1,008 −$57 -6%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $201 −$45 -22%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,523 +$1,535 +101%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 15 $301 −$8 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $711 −$517 -73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$120 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $381 +$790 +207%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,459 +$91 +6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $498 −$493 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $504 +$128 +25%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $803 +$95 +12%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $702 +$84 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $505 −$298 -59%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $899 +$66 +7%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $709 −$700 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $703 +$58 +8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $294 −$290 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,400 +$102 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,409 +$362 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 +$301 +226%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $807 −$774 -96%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1,016 −$955 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $703 +$110 +16%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,179 +$501 +42%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,006 +$228 +23%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $706 +$248 +35%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $666 −$381 -57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,013 −$568 -56%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2,708 −$2,700 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,719 +$1,003 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$94 +31%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $810 +$522 +64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $47 9m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $224 15m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $204 16m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 18m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $410 19m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $814 28m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $212 28m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,026 33m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,205 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 20¢ $168 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 76¢ $201 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $705 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 85¢ $603 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 84¢ $502 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $7 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,734 10h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Thanasi Kokkinakis 69¢ $738 13h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 83¢ $904 13h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $1,208 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $694 14h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 91¢ $1,103 14h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $1,126 14h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 88¢ $995 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 63¢ $442 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $440 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $484 16h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 50¢ $469 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records