Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c72…893e sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$276
other 25% −$325
world 11% +$2
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +44.4% +30.7% 46% 46% +3.0%
≤30d 13 +44.4% +30.7% 46% 46% +3.0%
≤90d 13 +44.4% +30.7% 46% 46% +3.0%
all 58 -18.6% -26.4% 34% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 34% -10.5%
10% -33.4% 33% -19.0%
15% -39.8% 31% -26.9%
20% -45.7% 31% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$18 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage135d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 58¢ $120 $103 −$17 (-14%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $114 +$37 +32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$54 +528%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$31 +303%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $159 −$89 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$86 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $89 −$4 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $116 +$126 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $103 +$12 +12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 28 $13 −$13 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $105 +$105 +100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $15 −$12 -81%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score Feb 26 $55 +$38 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $50 −$1 -2%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $30 +$22 +72%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 22 $40 +$35 +88%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score Feb 22 $24 −$24 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to S Feb 21 $11 +$12 +106%
CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Feb 21 $20 +$16 +82%
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 21 $20 +$17 +85%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 17 $61 −$36 -58%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Feb 16 $26 +$20 +77%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $16 −$16 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 06 $8 −$2 -26%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $9 −$5 -57%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score Feb 06 $4 +$3 +75%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score Feb 06 $6 +$6 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $114 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $91 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 50¢ $86 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $15 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $68 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $68 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $70 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $85 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $85 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $89 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $188 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $36 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 32h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $116 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $116 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $103 2d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $198 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.