Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c6f…c9a0 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+14%) realized +$398 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$352
14 days+$367
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$67
other 36% +$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 43% +7.0%
≤30d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 73% 45% +5.7%
≤90d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 73% 45% +5.7%
all 11 +7.6% -2.7% 73% 45% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 45% +5.7%
10% -12.0% 27% -4.4%
15% -20.5% 27% -13.6%
20% -28.3% 27% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$8 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.94 per $1 lost it wins $16.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized+$398
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $375 $360 −$15 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $710 +$25 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $451 +$296 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $444 +$52 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $320 −$20 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $230 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $301 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $391 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 38h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $344 39h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 41h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $600 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $680 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $110 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $66 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $496 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $72 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $73 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $227 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.55 · official $454.50 (match) · 51 history records