Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8c6d…9b2a crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65,956 (-40%) realized −$65,978 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,627per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$63,875
sports 3% −$1,812
world 0% −$289
other 0% +$1
politics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 100% +10.2%
≤30d 2 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 50% -0.6%
≤90d 4 +7.2% -3.0% 75% 25% -9.2%
all 61 -29.0% -35.8% 43% 26% -46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 26% -46.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 25% -51.3%
15% -47.5% 23% -56.0%
20% -52.7% 21% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$4,284) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,497 vs −$3,179 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$65,978
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage168d
Avg bet$2,627
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $80 $102 +$22 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $47 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 14 $120 +$4 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $3,006 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 08 $121 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11AM ET Mar 01 $4,284 +$4,116 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5AM ET Feb 27 $4,785 +$3,915 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1AM ET Feb 27 $2,443 +$2,347 +96%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 23 $664 +$58 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 22 $662 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2PM ET Feb 13 $8,431 −$8,431 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $96 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup: Pakistan vs USA (Game 1) Feb 10 $1,870 −$1,870 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 8? Feb 10 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET Feb 10 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1PM ET Feb 07 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7AM ET Feb 07 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 4AM ET Feb 07 $2,205 +$2,295 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3PM ET Feb 06 $2,025 −$2,025 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 06 $1,050 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 06 $800 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 06 $1,289 −$1,289 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 12? Feb 06 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 06 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 04 $12,835 −$12,835 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8AM ET Feb 04 $7,303 +$7,601 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8AM ET Feb 04 $375 −$375 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4AM ET Feb 04 $4,000 +$4,000 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8AM ET Feb 02 $5,010 −$5,010 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12PM ET Jan 28 $2,989 −$2,989 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6AM ET Jan 27 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $3,016 −$3,016 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8AM ET Jan 25 $2,505 −$2,505 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 25 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 24 $1,005 +$495 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 24 $3,813 −$3,813 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 23 $2,014 +$1,786 +89%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 23 $5,504 −$5,504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 22 $5,170 +$330 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 22 $2,652 +$2,548 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5AM ET Jan 22 $74 +$76 +104%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 21 $469 −$469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 21 $7,350 −$7,350 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 20 $3,542 +$4,158 +117%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 20 $3,162 +$238 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 19 $218 −$218 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 19 $4,472 −$4,472 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 19 $7,154 −$7,154 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 18 $5,475 +$1,825 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4AM ET Jan 18 $5,999 −$5,999 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $83 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $120 48d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $251 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $80 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $224 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $5 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $50 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $1 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $5 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $10 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $5 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $2 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $2 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $100 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $1 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $2 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $5 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $10 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $10 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $2 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $1 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $1,187 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $20 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $8 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $1 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $6 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $5 72d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi SELL Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $30 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.37 · official $102.37 (match) · 472 history records