Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c6a…b08b
other · 164 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$355 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$292 · open −$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses89 / 72
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)161 / 164
History coverage118d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit10%
Chart Positions 3 History 161 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$92
14 days+$38
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$62 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$24 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$16 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$22 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $27 +$18 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $28 −$1 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $48 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $91 +$10 +11%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $25 +$12 +46%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$20 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $141 +$27 +19%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 +$30 +59%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $35 +$27 +76%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $114 +$39 +34%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $76 +$51 +67%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $86 −$70 -82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $46 +$26 +56%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $46 +$41 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $91 +$45 +49%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $40 −$3 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $66 +$69 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% +$204
sports 4% −$4
crypto 1% +$31
world 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 22m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $123 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $56 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 78¢ $41 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $25 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $22 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 75¢ $16 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 60¢ $25 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $15 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $25 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.5% +15.4% 73% 73% +11.6%
≤30d 48 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 52% -5.9%
≤90d 138 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 50% -11.1%
all 161 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 53% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 53% -6.6%
10% -15.7% 50% -15.6%
15% -23.9% 45% -23.7%
20% -31.3% 35% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.94 · official $106.94 (match) · 404 history records