trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $15 | +$15 | +97% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +165% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$8 | +42% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 07 | $145 | −$140 | -97% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 16 | $759 | −$488 | -64% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 13 | $271 | +$21 | +8% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Apr 11 | $218 | −$114 | -52% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Apr 10 | $473 | −$254 | -54% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 28 | $389 | −$221 | -57% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina | Mar 27 | $100 | −$11 | -11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +51.0% | +36.6% | 75% | 75% | +7.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +51.0% | +36.6% | 75% | 75% | +7.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -14.7% | -22.9% | 36% | 27% | -59.1% |
| all | 11 | -14.7% | -22.9% | 36% | 27% | -59.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.9% | 27% | -59.1% |
| 10% | -30.2% | 27% | -63.0% |
| 15% | -37.0% | 27% | -66.6% |
| 20% | -43.2% | 18% | -69.9% |