Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c67…1d8d other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$184 (-7%) realized −$182 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$53
14 days−$29
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$55
sports 30% −$38
tech 9% +$24
politics 6% −$145
world 2% −$37
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 43% -15.3%
≤30d 20 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 45% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -25.4% -32.5% 46% 41% -12.9%
all 48 -42.5% -48.0% 35% 31% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.0% 31% -20.6%
10% -53.0% 27% -28.2%
15% -57.5% 21% -35.1%
20% -61.7% 17% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$27 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage222d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+49%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 +$65 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$37 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$43 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 +$5 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$36 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$64 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $77 +$23 +30%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $51 −$1 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 14 $103 +$30 +29%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 14 $111 +$80 +72%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $68 −$67 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 14 $96 +$19 +20%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $80 +$11 +13%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Trump say "Get along" or "Getting along" during events with Brazi May 08 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6? Jan 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $200 −$100 -50%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $38 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $58 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $55 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $78 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $96 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 7d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa BUY Cristina Bucsa 95¢ $100 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu BUY Diane Parry 77¢ $4 31d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $50 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.32 · official $317.32 (match) · 161 history records