Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c67…fab2 crypto 280 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,500 (+5%) realized +$4,500 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%168W / 112L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day259.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$556
7 days+$2,770
14 days+$2,771
30 days+$2,771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2,155
sports 1% +$850
other 0% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 +5.6% -4.4% 60% 50% -6.8%
≤30d 280 +5.6% -4.4% 60% 50% -6.8%
≤90d 280 +5.6% -4.4% 60% 50% -6.8%
all 280 +5.6% -4.4% 60% 50% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover259.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 50% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 42% -15.7%
15% -21.9% 35% -23.8%
20% -29.6% 24% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$156 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses168 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)280 / 280
History coverage7d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day259.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 280 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $164 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$136 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $179 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $961 −$161 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $835 +$165 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $271 −$71 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $400 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $902 −$302 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $955 −$155 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $267 −$67 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $538 +$262 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$192 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $576 +$224 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $438 −$424 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $253 +$147 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$81 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $475 +$125 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$63 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $255 +$145 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $277 +$123 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,060 −$260 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $188 −$181 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $290 +$110 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $333 +$67 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $863 +$337 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $581 +$219 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $649 +$351 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $944 +$456 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $680 −$80 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$161 +417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$81 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1,781 −$581 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $755 −$355 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,140 +$460 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,013 −$966 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $134 +$66 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $539 +$461 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $672 +$128 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $781 +$419 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $557 −$157 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $164 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $149 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $73 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $125 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $42 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $41 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $187 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $165 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $121 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $147 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $175 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $84 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $143 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2045 history records