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| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 58¢ | 56¢ | $19,390 | $18,469 | −$921 (-5%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 16¢ | 20¢ | $4,545 | $5,655 | +$1,110 (+24%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | $115 | $119 | +$4 (+3%) |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | Yes | 93¢ | 0¢ | $186 | $0 | −$186 (-100%) |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | Yes | 91¢ | 0¢ | $1,820 | $0 | −$1,820 (-100%) |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | Yes | 91¢ | 0¢ | $1,011 | $0 | −$1,011 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $3,196 | $0 | −$3,196 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $131 | $0 | −$131 (-100%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $3,017 | $0 | −$3,017 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $672 | $0 | −$672 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $34,143 | +$12,515 | +37% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 01 | $33,496 | +$2,044 | +6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 31 | $127,272 | +$6,076 | +5% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 31 | $33,271 | −$14 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $3,639 | −$777 | -21% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | May 31 | $180 | −$171 | -95% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $77 | −$67 | -87% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 31 | $7,280 | +$259 | +4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 29 | $4,814 | −$3,194 | -66% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $23,975 | −$7,007 | -29% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | May 29 | $842 | +$40 | +5% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | May 28 | $672 | −$672 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | May 28 | $11,760 | +$690 | +6% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | May 28 | $11,369 | +$237 | +2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | May 27 | $3,771 | −$2,797 | -74% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | May 26 | $1,318 | +$47 | +4% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | May 25 | $21,298 | +$13 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | May 25 | $3,640 | −$1,714 | -47% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | May 25 | $8,350 | +$69 | +1% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | May 24 | $1,878 | +$20 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $28,667 | +$2,848 | +10% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | May 04 | $439 | +$1 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | May 04 | $52,489 | +$674 | +1% |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? | May 04 | $2,664 | +$13 | +0% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | May 04 | $38,418 | +$1,422 | +4% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | Apr 28 | $38,800 | +$371 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 21 | -27.6% | -34.5% | 57% | 10% | -5.0% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 65% | 8% | -5.9% |
| all | 26 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 65% | 8% | -5.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -29.5% | 8% | -5.9% |
| 10% | -36.2% | 8% | -14.9% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -42.4% | 8% | -23.1% |
| 20% | -48.0% | 0% | -30.7% |