Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8c65…dcf7 other 614 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$389 · open −$389
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate41%176W / 258L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$60
14 days+$51
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$382
world 6% −$80
politics 5% −$50
sports 5% −$66
tech 4% +$128
economics 2% −$27
finance 2% −$80
weather 1% +$84
crypto 0% +$68
culture 0% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +10.5% +0.0% 41% 23% -5.0%
≤30d 209 -11.2% -19.6% 38% 28% -10.0%
≤90d 430 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 26% -8.9%
all 434 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 26% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 23% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 18% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$2,775
Realized+$389
Unrealized−$389
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses176 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions201
Markets (closed)434 / 614
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$117
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 201 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 50¢ 95¢ $242 $461 +$219 (+91%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $126 $135 +$9 (+7%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $115 $78 −$37 (-32%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 66¢ 76¢ $66 $76 +$10 (+15%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 49¢ 50¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $68 $48 −$20 (-30%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 59¢ 70¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+19%)
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? No 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 74¢ $53 $45 −$8 (-15%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? No 47¢ 50¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will United States be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 83¢ 92¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+11%)
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? No 93¢ 98¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 57¢ 76¢ $28 $38 +$9 (+33%)
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $41 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 88¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+38%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 72¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-19%)
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 69¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 71¢ $24 $28 +$5 (+19%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? No 84¢ 90¢ $27 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? No 83¢ 92¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $31 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +60%
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Jun 19 $44 −$8 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 18 $26 +$18 +68%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $8 +$12 +160%
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? Jun 17 $27 −$10 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 $0 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will there be 30+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 +$12 +388%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $7 +$8 +111%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $13 +$5 +36%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $54 +$29 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $85 48m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $104 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $204 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $46 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 3h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 50¢ $10 3h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 49¢ $10 3h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 48¢ $10 3h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 47¢ $46 4h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? SELL No 100¢ $14 4h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 49¢ $24 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 49¢ $24 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 48¢ $24 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 48¢ $24 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 47¢ $24 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 47¢ $24 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 46¢ $5 6h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL No 49¢ $12 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY No 40¢ $5 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY No 39¢ $18 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY No 38¢ $28 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY No 36¢ $19 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,774.58 · official $2,773.97 (match) · 3500 history records