Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c5c…b0ab other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+15%) realized +$31 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$28
sports 19% +$31
world 9% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +87.3% +69.5% 56% 56% +14.6%
≤30d 10 +68.6% +52.5% 50% 50% +2.8%
≤90d 14 +72.7% +56.2% 50% 43% +7.7%
all 14 +72.7% +56.2% 50% 43% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.2% 43% +7.7%
10% +41.3% 43% -2.6%
15% +27.6% 36% -12.0%
20% +15.1% 36% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +91% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage115d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 62¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$14 +712%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$12 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 08 $5 +$25 +525%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-25? Apr 08 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $29 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 10d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 54d
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 61d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-25? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 110d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.03 · official $28.03 (match) · 23 history records