Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c5a…ed81
other · 36 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage311d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $4 $0 -11%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $127 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $70 −$5 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 9 at 5PM ET? Aug 11 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $78 −$2 -2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Aug 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on August 6? Aug 05 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 36% −$2
other 29% −$4
world 15% $0
sports 9% $0
weather 9% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $12 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $2 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $31 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.97 · official $27.97 (match) · 126 history records