Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c51…4841 weather 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$748 (-8%) realized −$754 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%85W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$766
crypto 26% +$14
world 0% −$14
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -20.9% -28.4% 41% 35% -12.6%
≤30d 78 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 33% -11.0%
≤90d 175 -21.5% -29.0% 49% 25% -16.8%
all 175 -21.5% -29.0% 49% 25% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 25% -16.8%
10% -35.8% 21% -24.8%
15% -42.0% 15% -32.1%
20% -47.7% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses85 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)175 / 181
History coverage79d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 15¢ 99¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+560%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$32 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$52 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$43 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$22 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$48 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$44 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$27 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$35 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -92%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.54 · official $15.54 (match) · 944 history records