Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8c51…e6a1 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-4%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%26W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$113
world 10% +$3
sports 1% −$32
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 -19.8% -27.4% 80% 0% -27.6%
all 30 -13.0% -21.3% 87% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -13.6%
10% -28.8% 0% -21.9%
15% -35.7% 0% -29.4%
20% -42.0% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$39 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage381d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? Jun 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 22 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Apr 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Feb 26 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 December 15-21? Dec 22 $170 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30? Dec 17 $169 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 November 10-16? Nov 30 $169 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on October Oct 29 $169 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 24 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on September 22? Sep 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Giants vs. Commanders Sep 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 06 $110 $0 +0%
Solana above $170 on August 25? Aug 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on August 25? Aug 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 13? Aug 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 13 $113 +$1 +1%
Solana above $170 on July 18? Jul 24 $113 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 18 $112 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.10 on June 20? Jun 29 $111 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 10? Jun 17 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $102 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $102 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $105 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $105 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $104 98d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $104 119d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 0¢ $4 119d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $49 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $58 159d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $46 159d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $105 174d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $105 185d
Will Solana dip to $60 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $170 188d
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30? BUY No 100¢ $169 207d
Will Solana reach $240 November 10-16? BUY No 100¢ $169 222d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $169 239d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on October BUY No 100¢ $169 245d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $169 271d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on September 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 276d
Giants vs. Commanders BUY Giants 29¢ $32 292d
Will Solana reach $340 in August? BUY No 100¢ $110 301d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $104 301d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on August 25? BUY No 100¢ $115 304d
Solana above $170 on August 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 304d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 13? BUY No 100¢ $114 316d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $113 336d
Solana above $170 on July 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 342d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $112 362d
XRP above $2.10 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $111 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.30 · official $102.30 (match) · 62 history records