Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c4c…8716 crypto 925 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$706 (-4%) realized −$984 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%574W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$227
14 days−$365
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$973
world 0% −$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -43.2% -48.6% 17% 17% -50.4%
≤30d 311 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 33% -28.2%
≤90d 925 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 34% -14.8%
all 925 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 34% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 34% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 23% -22.9%
15% -31.9% 18% -30.4%
20% -38.6% 15% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$984
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses574 / 351
Open positions0
Markets (closed)925 / 925
History coverage50d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -83%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -80%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -82%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -91%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -88%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +529%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$19 +600%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$22 +685%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 30m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2150 history records