Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c4c…728d world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%8W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$3
other 21% $0
sports 17% $0
politics 14% −$1
culture 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -10.1%
all 42 -1.2% -10.6% 19% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses8 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage283d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $31 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $26 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $2 $0 -27%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 18 $4 $0 -7%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 17 $27 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $24 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $5 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $29 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $30 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $31 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $30 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $34 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $34 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $34 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $34 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.23 · official $29.23 (match) · 131 history records