Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c4b…03b1 crypto 616 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$68 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate60%360W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$68
14 days+$32
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$256
sports 3% +$102
other 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +23.8% +12.0% 49% 47% +8.4%
≤30d 212 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 22% -33.5%
≤90d 605 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 34% -11.5%
all 605 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 34% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 34% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 24% -19.9%
15% -26.7% 17% -27.7%
20% -33.9% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses360 / 245
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)605 / 616
History coverage66d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$18 +324%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$28 +132%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$8 +98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$14 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$2 -37%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$6 +38%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $6 +$10 +169%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $7 +$10 +140%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $3 +$7 +226%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 +$5 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States Jun 12 $7 −$6 -89%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $28 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$7 +77%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 4¢ $1 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 4¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.80 · official $4.80 (match) · 3186 history records