Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c49…6ced crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (331 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$744 (-5%) realized −$636 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%37W / 42L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day331.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (331 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -4.2% -13.4% 47% 30% -7.1%
≤30d 79 -4.2% -13.4% 47% 30% -7.1%
≤90d 79 -4.2% -13.4% 47% 30% -7.1%
all 79 -4.2% -13.4% 47% 30% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover331.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 30% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 13% -15.9%
15% -29.2% 6% -24.1%
20% -36.2% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$50 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,335
Realized−$636
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage1d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day331.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 90¢ 88¢ $402 $395 −$7 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Down 69¢ 57¢ $416 $344 −$72 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 80¢ 69¢ $349 $302 −$47 (-14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Down 71¢ 64¢ $316 $283 −$34 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Up 61¢ 42¢ $66 $47 −$20 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $334 +$41 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$365 +1052%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $375 +$39 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $579 +$310 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $400 +$162 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $726 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $196 +$20 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $307 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $411 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $421 +$44 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $408 +$45 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $414 +$25 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $918 +$223 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $379 +$70 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $250 +$62 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $260 +$28 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $360 +$86 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $378 +$63 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $323 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $173 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $781 +$100 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $367 +$75 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $413 +$26 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $262 −$262 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $330 +$46 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $115 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $94 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $186 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $18 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $58 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $64 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $178 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $228 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $55 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $78 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $30 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $309 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $73 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $375 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $273 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $327 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $73 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $197 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $296 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $229 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $159 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $245 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,335.17 · official $2,047.29 · 417 history records