Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c48…d40e other 183 markets active 5d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
politics 24% −$3
other 21% −$4
culture 9% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 183 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage156d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $172 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $156 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 13 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $27 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 16d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 16d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $36 24d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 94¢ $36 24d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $23 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $23 31d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 81d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $31 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $31 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $34 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 82d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $29 82d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $29 82d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $24 82d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $24 82d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $36 82d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 83d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $35 83d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $35 83d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $25 83d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $25 83d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 83d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $27 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $27 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 754 history records