Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c45…7069
sports · 1187 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$427 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$391 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized−$391
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses802 / 409
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1211 / 1187
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 1211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$27
14 days−$92
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 83¢ 84¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 70¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 85¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 76¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 19¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-70%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 61¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Team Vitality 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 69¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 71¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 75¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 60¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 84¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs GamerLegion 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playo Jun 13 $3 −$5 -151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$6 -329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$3 -169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Jun 13 $0 +$2 +363%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$3 -89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$12 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $65 −$5 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $23 +$10 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$4 +89%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$15 +51%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$215
crypto 24% −$171
other 6% +$55
world 1% +$6
tech 1% +$3
weather 0% −$7
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $6 37m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $30 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $71 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 62¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 84¢ $60 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $34 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $9 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 64¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 64¢ $25 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 34¢ $2 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 5h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $4 5h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $15 5h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $44 5h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 23¢ $2 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $8 7h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $17 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $14 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -22.8% -30.1% 54% 39% -9.8%
≤30d 549 -7.8% -16.6% 68% 46% -9.1%
≤90d 1211 -7.2% -16.0% 66% 44% -10.8%
all 1211 -7.2% -16.0% 66% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 44% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 25% -19.3%
15% -31.4% 14% -27.1%
20% -38.1% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.69 · official $101.69 (match) · 3500 history records