Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c44…fcd4
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$107 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,637 · open +$1,627
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82,102
Realized−$4,637
Unrealized+$1,627
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions22
Markets (closed)56 / 78
History coverage604d
Avg bet$6,533
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 22 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$1,286
14 days+$11,967
30 days+$14,801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $50,773 $52,783 +$2,010 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6,840 $6,270 −$570 (-8%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 92¢ 92¢ $3,808 $3,808 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $4,666 $3,647 −$1,019 (-22%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 92¢ 95¢ $3,064 $3,149 +$85 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2,318 $2,385 +$67 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $1,885 $1,929 +$44 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $1,499 $1,394 −$105 (-7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $1,298 $1,368 +$70 (+5%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 24¢ 48¢ $613 $1,229 +$616 (+101%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $973 $1,004 +$32 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $414 $617 +$203 (+49%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $550 $575 +$25 (+5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $460 $550 +$90 (+20%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $476 $462 −$14 (-3%)
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $236 $289 +$53 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $206 $203 −$3 (-2%)
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Yes 53¢ 70¢ $151 $200 +$49 (+32%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $114 $96 −$18 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-13%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 85¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $575 $0 −$575 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,180 +$175 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 09 $1,708 +$1 +0%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 08 $1,059 +$231 +22%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $9,015 +$952 +11%
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $2,593 +$7 +0%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $251 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $14,465 +$11,256 +78%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $582 −$575 -99%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $60 −$58 -97%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2,656 +$757 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 26 $2,046 +$472 +23%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $28,931 +$1,380 +5%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $6,760 +$307 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 05 $1,826 −$527 -29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 01 $21,682 +$81 +0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%? Apr 01 $338 +$22 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $15,153 +$787 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,012 +$96 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 26 $10,256 +$2,309 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 26 $19,082 +$2,994 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 18 $500 −$35 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 18 $4,810 −$1,739 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 18 $1,144 +$1,149 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 18 $30,737 +$996 +3%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) - T Mar 18 $193 −$193 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 18 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30? Mar 14 $5,874 +$2,708 +46%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) - T Mar 01 $34 +$1 +2%
Big Bash League: Sydney Thunder vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1) - Completed Dec 23 $5 $0 +0%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) - C Dec 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) - W Dec 21 $1,495 −$54 -4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 21 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 21 $2,570 −$2,570 -100%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) Dec 21 $2,129 −$60 -3%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $3,870 +$630 +16%
Big Bash League: Sydney Thunder vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1) Dec 20 $15,495 +$16 +0%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $49,168 +$5,265 +11%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Dec 09 $1,904 +$295 +16%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 26 $8,900 −$3,308 -37%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jun 26 $14,900 +$353 +2%
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio? Mar 11 $306 −$183 -60%
Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? Mar 11 $1,800 +$3,180 +177%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 06 $435 +$33 +8%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 21 $288 +$136 +47%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 13 $27,333 +$2,608 +10%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 13 $5,850 −$5,850 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 13 $20,324 −$20,324 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$14,499
politics 22% −$24,885
finance 21% +$6,597
sports 11% +$8,174
tech 6% +$1,072
world 3% −$7,290
crypto 0% +$328
culture 0% −$1,504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $486 38m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,539 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 73¢ $54 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 73¢ $3,659 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,103 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $148 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $48 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $902 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $55 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $19 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $9 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $149 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $54 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $19 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $47 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $23 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $109 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $312 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $47 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $24 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $78 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.5% -15.4% 88% 38% -2.2%
≤30d 16 -13.4% -21.6% 75% 38% +9.2%
≤90d 29 -11.1% -19.6% 69% 31% -1.1%
all 56 -10.2% -18.8% 66% 29% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 29% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 14% -19.1%
15% -33.6% 9% -26.9%
20% -40.1% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82,102.00 · official $82,102.07 (match) · 1226 history records