Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8c42…5300 crypto 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%166W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$22
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$76
world 0% −$69
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 161 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 167 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$69 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses166 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage130d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $424 $424 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 17 $422 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $421 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? Jun 15 $406 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $418 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 13? Jun 14 $261 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 13? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 12? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? Jun 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 12? Jun 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 12? Jun 13 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $418 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $417 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $416 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 8? Jun 09 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $415 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 7? Jun 08 $349 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 6? Jun 07 $211 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 6? Jun 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 6? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $408 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $408 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $405 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $405 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $403 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 29? May 30 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $398 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 26 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $397 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 24? May 25 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 24? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 24 $395 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 23? May 24 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $393 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $394 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $392 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 18? May 19 $393 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 18 $392 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 17? May 18 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $390 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $424 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $422 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $421 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $406 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $418 3d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $148 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $261 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $87 4d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $187 4d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $126 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $418 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $417 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $417 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $416 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $416 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $416 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $415 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $62 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $349 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $80 10d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $120 10d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $211 10d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $408 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $408 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $405 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $405 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $404 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.79 · official $423.79 (match) · 356 history records