Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c41…8ca1 other 208 markets active 11h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$372 (-1%) realized −$337 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%79W / 128L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$105
crypto 36% −$9
politics 8% −$171
tech 7% −$84
sports 4% +$1
world 3% −$76
weather 2% −$17
culture 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -39.2% -45.0% 24% 24% -57.5%
≤30d 18 -37.0% -43.0% 22% 22% -54.9%
≤90d 90 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 46% -10.3%
all 207 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 20% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 20% -11.0%
10% -20.4% 16% -19.5%
15% -28.1% 11% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses79 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage520d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $55 $20 −$35 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$22 +291%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$17 +226%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$5 +43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 18 $239 +$25 +10%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 18 $5,997 −$12 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1 May 10 $7 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 12? May 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 11? May 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 10? May 10 $7 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12? May 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 11? May 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 10? May 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 8 May 09 $7 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 7 May 08 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 08 $4 +$8 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 07 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 06 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5? May 05 $8 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 3? May 03 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 03 $5 +$2 +42%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 3? May 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April May 01 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri May 01 $5 +$7 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30? May 01 $5 +$7 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 30 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on April 21? Apr 21 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 20 Apr 20 $9 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 19 Apr 20 $197 −$54 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 19 $7 +$4 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 19? Apr 19 $8 −$4 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $17 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 5d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 7d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $1 30d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 51¢ $0 30d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $49 30d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1 SELL No 84¢ $10 38d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 38d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 38d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 10? SELL No 94¢ $9 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 1640 history records