Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8c3d…27a9 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$49
world 37% −$43
finance 4% +$3
politics 3% +$14
sports 3% +$55
crypto 3% +$7
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +151.4% +127.5% 58% 58% +79.7%
≤30d 14 +115.5% +95.0% 50% 50% +29.5%
≤90d 51 +25.8% +13.8% 39% 39% -22.7%
all 61 +35.1% +22.2% 43% 43% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.2% 43% -11.1%
10% +10.5% 43% -19.6%
15% -0.2% 41% -27.4%
20% -10.0% 39% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)61 / 94
History coverage155d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 22¢ 36¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+61%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1310%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$43 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $4 +$4 +90%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-19? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $3 +$4 +124%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $3 +$7 +249%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $5 +$9 +186%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $21 +$9 +43%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$6 +112%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$8 +76%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 28 $15 −$6 -39%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 2? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.72 · official $146.73 (match) · 265 history records