Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8C 0x8c3c…ad87 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$508 (+31%) realized +$515 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip

Net edge+29%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$408per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$826now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+29.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+42.7%	+29.1%	100%	67%	+47.0%
≤30d	3	+42.7%	+29.1%	100%	67%	+47.0%
≤90d	3	+42.7%	+29.1%	100%	67%	+47.0%
all	3	+42.7%	+29.1%	100%	67%	+47.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+29.1%	67%	+47.0%
10%	+16.8%	67%	+32.9%
15%	+5.5%	67%	+20.1%
20%	-4.9%	33%	+8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +62% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$157 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage

Net worth$826

Realized+$515

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage62d

Avg bet$408

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	66¢	65¢	$833	$826	−$7 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$504	+$369	+73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$223	+$100	+45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Jun 24	$30	+$3	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	66¢	$875	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$327	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$222	6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1	6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$142	10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$34	10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$30	62d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.05 · official $826.05 (match) · 10 history records