Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c3c…dc1d crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$141 (-17%) realized −$146 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$20
14 days−$80
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$39
crypto 39% −$73
other 13% +$36
world 7% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.3% -53.3% 33% 22% -16.8%
≤30d 42 -21.1% -28.6% 29% 24% -26.1%
≤90d 42 -21.1% -28.6% 29% 24% -26.1%
all 42 -21.1% -28.6% 29% 24% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 24% -26.1%
10% -35.5% 24% -33.1%
15% -41.7% 24% -39.6%
20% -47.4% 14% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage15d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $144 $146 +$2 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $59 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $28 −$27 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 +$18 +63%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$22 -44%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$15 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$79 +746%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $19 +$28 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$9 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $147 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $60 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $28 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $29 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $29 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 0¢ $3 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $42 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $59 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.34 · official $207.38 (match) · 83 history records