Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c3a…65c8 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,045 (-20%) realized −$1,056 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$707
7 days−$483
14 days−$574
30 days−$1,160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$623
world 18% −$669
other 7% +$129
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 25% 25% -39.7%
≤30d 18 -24.4% -31.6% 22% 22% -58.9%
≤90d 33 -3.8% -12.9% 30% 30% -23.2%
all 52 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 29% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 29% -30.1%
10% -32.1% 27% -36.8%
15% -38.7% 27% -42.9%
20% -44.7% 23% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$93 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$1,056
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage154d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $65 $76 +$11 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $14 +$53 +378%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $79 −$65 -83%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $187 −$175 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $30 −$28 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $206 +$209 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $205 −$161 -78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $98 +$241 +246%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $26 +$47 +183%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 09 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $586 −$586 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $121 +$468 +388%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $323 −$272 -84%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $40 −$6 -14%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $25 −$20 -80%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $48 −$48 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $160 +$346 +216%
Spread: AEK (-1.5) Apr 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 3.5 Apr 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $368 +$252 +68%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $179 +$337 +188%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $101 +$141 +140%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5PM ET Mar 19 $57 +$53 +93%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $50 +$19 +39%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $46 +$3 +6%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $32 +$20 +61%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $32 −$17 -54%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 18 $21 −$21 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 01 $30 −$29 -96%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $88 −$59 -67%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $277 −$255 -92%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 3.5 Jan 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $17 +$3 +15%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 4.5 Jan 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026? Jan 21 $25 −$9 -38%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $69 −$45 -65%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $7 −$7 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $67 55m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $14 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $79 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 2¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $52 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $187 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $154 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $261 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $415 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $45 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $45 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $206 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $205 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $340 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $72 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $21 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $26 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $98 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 4¢ $42 2d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $91 17d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 43¢ $586 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.84 · official $75.84 (match) · 131 history records