Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c36…9664
other · 120 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$58 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 103
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage96d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$18
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $63 +$4 +6%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $91 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $58 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $205 −$2 -1%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $143 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 06 $63 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $114 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 03 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $59 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $58 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $60 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$24
politics 24% −$11
sports 14% −$6
crypto 13% −$9
economics 8% $0
culture 5% −$5
tech 3% $0
world 2% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $63 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $50 2h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $50 9h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $53 9h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $54 9h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 10h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $48 16h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $48 23h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 100¢ $67 23h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 94¢ $63 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 37h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $40 38h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $42 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 2d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 3d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 119 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.77 · official $62.77 (match) · 440 history records