Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c32…c11f world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$7
other 18% −$5
sports 6% +$7
weather 4% +$11
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.1% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.1% 56% 0% -8.9%
all 30 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 7% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 7% -7.5%
10% -16.2% 7% -16.4%
15% -24.3% 3% -24.5%
20% -31.7% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage492d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $52 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $55 −$2 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $6 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $46 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $27 $0 +1%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 07 $21 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February Mar 05 $8 +$11 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $52 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $53 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $55 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $53 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $35 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $14 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $19 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $17 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $41 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $19 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $17 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 104 history records