Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c2d…378b
world · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage462d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on May 30? May 29 $11 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $1 $0 -33%
Solana above $200 on May 30? May 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump remove Harvard tax exempt status? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $11 $0 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 10? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on March 20? Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 18 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% −$1
other 19% −$1
crypto 10% +$1
sports 8% $0
politics 7% $0
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $15 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 27h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 27h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 29h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $23 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $8 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $32 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $32 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $33 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $8 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 5d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $10 355d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $10 357d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 98¢ $11 357d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 366d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 97¢ $11 380d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 34 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.29 · official $12.29 (match) · 85 history records