Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c2b…aacb
crypto · 68 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$56 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$310
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)59 / 68
History coverage626d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 9 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$256
14 days+$256
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 60¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 32¢ 34¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1) Aurora Gaming 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) fnatic 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) KT Rolster 67¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $108 +$118 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $316 +$138 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 15 $100 −$73 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 15 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 15 $130 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 15 $214 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$11 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 03 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 03 $6 +$15 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 03 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 27 $18 +$25 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 27 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs 3DMAX (BO1) Dec 01 $32 +$23 +70%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) Nov 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) Nov 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) Nov 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs MIBR (BO1) Nov 30 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs B8 (BO1) Nov 30 $30 +$25 +82%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) Nov 30 $28 +$32 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1) Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 29 $200 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% +$93
other 31% +$246
crypto 29% −$288
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $51 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $152 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $57 19h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $316 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $27 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $114 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $124 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +76.5% +59.7% 100% 100% +45.0%
≤30d 2 +76.5% +59.7% 100% 100% +45.0%
≤90d 41 -21.0% -28.5% 39% 37% -11.9%
all 59 -17.5% -25.3% 41% 34% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -8.0%
10% -32.5% 31% -16.8%
15% -39.0% 29% -24.8%
20% -45.0% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.89 · official $309.91 (match) · 134 history records