Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c2b…ec21 sports 278 markets active 18h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-11%) realized −$123 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%53W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$54
sports 44% −$72
politics 3% −$72
weather 3% −$30
crypto 1% −$16
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -51.1% -55.8% 14% 14% -43.3%
≤30d 105 -51.1% -55.8% 14% 14% -43.3%
≤90d 165 -38.0% -43.9% 14% 14% -49.4%
all 211 -11.6% -20.0% 25% 24% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 24% -17.4%
10% -27.7% 22% -25.3%
15% -34.6% 21% -32.5%
20% -41.0% 19% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses53 / 158
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions42
Markets (closed)211 / 278
History coverage105d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-3%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-5%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+23%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-46%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 59¢ 50¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-42%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 38¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Scor Jun 17 $4 +$6 +141%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +355%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$8 +105%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $12 −$3 -24%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Honor of Kings: XQG Esports Club vs WanZhen Esports Club - Game 2 Winn Jun 12 $2 −$2 -82%
Honor of Kings: ANK Gaming vs BanMei Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Bruins vs. Capitals Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: K5 Esport vs Hasib Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Game Handicap: 67 (-1.5) vs Lightning Warriors (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Rainbow Six Siege: SIX7EVEN vs Lightning Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Rainbow Six Siege: SIX7EVEN vs Lightning Warriors (BO3) - Asia-Pacif Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Honor of Kings: ANK Gaming vs BanMei Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Function Kyoto vs EgiS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$22 -79%
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on March 13? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +401%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: EgiS (-1.5) vs Team Function Kyoto (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$20 -81%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND England vs. Cr BUY 5¢ $1 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND England vs. Cr BUY 12¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $0 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY 10¢ $5 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O BUY 6¢ $5 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O BUY 10¢ $1 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O BUY 11¢ $8 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 52¢ $11 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY 31¢ $10 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Exact BUY 6¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $5 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Scor BUY 41¢ $4 22h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $37 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $16 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 43¢ $25 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag BUY 10¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Mexico vs. BUY 4¢ $5 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 10¢ $10 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.04 · official $693.64 (match) · 798 history records